Latest News

Home / News / Latest News

World Steel Association: Global steel demand will reach 1.735 billion tons this year

May. 10, 2019

世界钢铁协会:今年全球钢铁需求将达到17.35亿吨

World Steel Association: Global steel demand will reach 1.735 billion tons this year

据新华社信息  世界钢铁协会日前发布了今年4月版短期钢铁需求预测结果称,全球钢铁需求在经济增速放缓的大背景下继续增长。

According to Xinhua News Agency, the World Steel Association recently released a short-term steel demand forecast for April this year, saying that global steel demand continues to grow against the backdrop of slowing economic growth.

据预测,今年全球钢铁需求将达到17.35亿吨,同比增长1.3%。明年,钢铁需求预计将增长1.0%,达到17.52亿吨。

According to forecasts, global steel demand will reach 1.735 billion tons this year, an increase of 1.3%. Next year, steel demand is expected to grow by 1.0% to 1.752 billion tons.

世界钢铁协会相关负责人表示,今明两年,全球钢铁需求预计将继续增长,但增速将随着全球经济放缓而下降。贸易环境的不确定性和金融市场的波动性尚未减弱,或将对目前的预测结果带来下行风险。

According to the relevant person in charge of the World Steel Association, global steel demand is expected to continue to grow this year and next, but the growth rate will decline as the global economy slows down. The uncertainty of the trading environment and the volatility of financial markets have not yet diminished or will pose downward risks to current forecasts.

去年,全球钢铁需求增长了2.1%,增速略低于2017年。今明两年,尽管全球经济环境较为严峻,全球钢铁需求仍有望继续增长。中国经济减速、全球经济增速放缓、贸易政策带来的不确定性,以及许多地区的政治格局的变化,都可能削弱商业信心和影响投资增速。

Last year, global steel demand grew by 2.1 percent, slightly slower than in 2017. This year and next, despite the severe global economic environment, global steel demand is expected to continue to grow. The slowdown in China's economy, the slowdown in global economic growth, the uncertainty brought about by trade policies, and changes in the political landscape in many regions may weaken business confidence and affect investment growth.

据预测,今年,中国政府可能会加大刺激力度,钢铁需求有望得以提振。不过,明年,随着刺激作用逐渐减弱,中国钢铁需求量将出现小幅下降。

It is predicted that the Chinese government may step up its stimulus efforts this year, and steel demand is expected to be boosted. However, next year, as the stimulus effect weakens, China's steel demand will decline slightly.

但新兴经济体(中国除外)的钢铁需求预计将在今明两年分别增长2.9%和4.6%。其中,在经历了废钞令和实施商品及服务税(GST)的双重冲击后,印度经济目前预计将在大选后的今年下半年开始恢复快速的增长。虽然财政赤字可能在一定程度上对公共投资造成压力,一系列基础设施项目的持续推进可能会在今明两年支撑钢铁需求增长7%以上。预计今明两年,不包括中国在内的亚洲发展中国家的钢铁需求将分别增长6.5%和6.4%,成为全球钢铁行业增长最快的地区。在东盟地区,基础设施建设将支撑对钢铁的需求。

However, steel demand in emerging economies (excluding China) is expected to increase by 2.9% and 4.6% respectively this year and next. Among them, after experiencing the double impact of the banknote order and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Indian economy is now expected to return to rapid growth in the second half of the year after the general election. Although the fiscal deficit may put pressure on public investment to a certain extent, the continued advancement of a series of infrastructure projects may support steel demand growth of more than 7% this year and next. It is expected that the demand for steel in developing countries in Asia, excluding China, will increase by 6.5% and 6.4% respectively this year and next, making it the fastest growing region in the global steel industry. In the ASEAN region, infrastructure construction will support demand for steel.

相比之下,预测指出,发达经济体的钢铁需求继2017年强劲增长3.1%之后,去年增长了1.8%。受恶化贸易环境的影响,预计今明两年的钢铁需求增速将分别放缓至0.3%和0.7%。

By contrast, forecasts show that steel demand in advanced economies grew 1.8 percent last year, following a strong 3.1 percent growth in 2017. Affected by the worsening trade environment, it is expected that steel demand growth will slow down to 0.3% and 0.7% respectively this year and next.

具体来看,2017年至2018年,在美国政府推出的财政刺激措施作用下,美国经济强劲增长,商业信心高涨,就业强劲,美国钢铁需求也因此受益。随着财政刺激作用逐渐减弱和货币政策的正常化,预计今年美国经济增速将放缓。建筑业和制造业的增长预计都将放缓。石油和天然气勘探投资预计也将减速,基础设施支出预计不会增加。

Specifically, from 2017 to 2018, under the influence of the fiscal stimulus measures introduced by the US government, the US economy grew strongly, business confidence was high, employment was strong, and US steel demand also benefited. With the gradual weakening of fiscal stimulus and the normalization of monetary policy, the US economic growth is expected to slow this year. Growth in both construction and manufacturing is expected to slow. Investment in oil and gas exploration is also expected to slow and infrastructure spending is not expected to increase.

欧盟经济正在面临贸易环境的不断恶化和英国退欧的不确定性带来的风险。据预测,今年欧盟主要经济体(尤其是那些出口依存度较高的经济体)的钢铁需求增长将放缓。预计明年钢铁需求增长将有所改善,这将取决于贸易紧张局势的缓和。

The EU economy is facing the risk of a deteriorating trading environment and uncertainty about the Brexit. It is predicted that the growth of steel demand in the major economies of the EU this year (especially those with higher export dependence) will slow down. Steel demand growth is expected to improve next year, depending on easing trade tensions.

去年,日本钢铁需求实现增长,主要得益于有利的投资环境、建筑业持续活跃以及消费税上调前消费者支出的增加。今明两年,尽管有公共项目的支撑,但由于建筑业和出口增长双重放缓,钢铁需求可能会小幅下降。

Last year, Japan’s steel demand grew, mainly due to a favorable investment environment, continued construction activity and increased consumer spending before the consumption tax hike. In the next two years, despite the support of public projects, steel demand is likely to fall slightly as both construction and export growth slows.

此外,分行业来看,预测称,随着汽车需求受到抑制和政府刺激措施的作用逐渐减弱,去年许多国家的汽车行业增长大幅放缓,尤其是欧盟、土耳其和中国。受此影响,全球汽车产量增速从2017年的4.9%降至去年的2.2%。今年,全球汽车产量增速将继续放缓至1%,预计到明年将企稳。然而,在拉丁美洲,尤其是巴西,汽车产量将逆势而上,继续呈现稳步反弹。

In addition, in terms of industries, the forecast said that with the suppression of automobile demand and the weakening of government stimulus measures, the growth of the automobile industry in many countries slowed down sharply last year, especially in the EU, Turkey, and China. Affected by this, global vehicle production growth rate fell from 4.9% in 2017 to 2.2% last year. This year, global auto production growth will continue to slow down to 1%, and it is expected to stabilize next year. However, in Latin America, especially Brazil, car production will continue to rebound steadily against the trend.

发达经济体的建筑业的增长势头预计也将略有放缓,但发展中经济体的建筑业增长反弹,有望使今明两年的全球增长保持在3%的水平。然而,在中国、土耳其、韩国和阿根廷,建筑业预计将在今年继续收缩。随着投资疲软和贸易环境恶化,预计全球机械行业将出现持续减速,并将持续到明年,在德国、日本和中国等主要生产国,增长减速将更为突出。

Construction growth in advanced economies is also expected to slow slightly, but a rebound in construction growth in developing economies is expected to keep global growth at 3 percent this year and next. However, in China, Turkey, South Korea, and Argentina, the construction industry is expected to continue to contract this year. With weak investment and deteriorating trading environment, the global machinery industry is expected to continue to slow down and will continue until next year. In major producers such as Germany, Japan, and China, the growth slowdown will be more prominent.

World Steel Association: Global steel demand will reach 1.735 billion tons this year

Contact Us
FOLLOW us

Sitemap

X